Identifying Theories of Change in the Design and Implementation of Three UNICEF Peace Education Programs

This dissertation uses evaluations of three UNICEF peace education programs (Albania, Armenia, and Aceh (Indonesia)) to determine if stakeholders’ implicit theories of change (how their programs would bring change to the participant) can be identified. Further this study suggests the potential contribution of the practice of applying theory of change to evaluation design.

All practitioners implementing programs have implicit theories about why they do what they do and why they believe it will work, but these theories are often hidden. It is posited here that working with stakeholders to develop their “homegrown” theories of change, and bringing in formal social theories where appropriate, increases the quality of the evaluation of peace education programs. Peace education programs in national, non-U.S. settings were studied because little research has been done on the effectiveness of such programs. The four research questions posed are:

1. Can stakeholders’ theories of change that articulate the underlying “if-then” assumptions of their programs be identified even though the stakeholders may not have known they were using a theory of change (e.g., “If we do this activity, we will get this change in behavior.”)?

2. Can theories of change be identified in the case studies that suggest that peace education curricula developed and implemented using established program philosophy and content with pedagogical methods tailored to reflect local culture (a) builds skill, (b) increases knowledge, (c) affects conflict behavior and/or (d) changes attitudes toward conflict among primary and/or secondary school students in a positive direction in the short-term and the long-term?

3. Can theories of change be identified in the case studies indicating that peace education curricula changes the attitudes of students towards cultural differences if lessons on acceptance and differences are included in the curricula? Further, is there theory that suggests that peace education enhances cultural competence and appropriate interaction with other culture groups as evidenced by a measurable increase in tolerance (attitude), acceptance (behavior), and understanding of differences (knowledge)?

4. Can theories of change be identified in the case studies that suggest that peace education programs, through teaching/training educators and administrators, change the pedagogical and decision-making methods in the education system?

Using a thematic process to organize the data, the research identifies a series of basic themes that form seven organizing themes. Sixty-eight (68) basic themes evolve out of repeated patterns indicating potential theoretical statements in the data. These themes are organized into larger patterns that describe elements of teacher preparation/pedagogical shift, program content, evaluation, stakeholders, external environment or context, and levels of change (individual to international). The organizing themes suggest a global theory of change that offers a grounded theory describing the changes that might be expected from a peace education program. The global theory that emerges is:
Peace education brings about a change in individuals and ultimately in the broader environment that increases the knowledge and promotes the practice of nonviolent, collaborative means of achieving peace in its broadest sense, e.g., social and economic justice, civil society, interpersonal conflict resolution skills, and ongoing shift from a culture of war to a culture of peace.

The data analysis process results describe the identification of a wide variety of theories of change at play in each of the programs and categorized under the organizing themes. The findings are then used to discuss areas in which theory of change practice might contribute to enhancing peace education evaluation design and implementation.