Another Chance to Revive the Central Asian Union

The death of Islam Karimov in September 2016 from a stroke came as a shock not only to the people of Uzbekistan but to the entire Central Asian region. The health of Karimov, who passed away at the age of 78, was a closely guarded secret and was never discussed by government officials. Without openly grooming a successor or endorsing anyone to take his place during his last days, his death also brought uncertainty, which raised the possibility of political instability and security deterioration in the country. The first signs of such a controversy occurred when Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, sent a letter of condolence to Nigmatilla Yuldashev, the speaker of the house who was then acting as the President of Uzbekistan. Shortly after this, Uzbekistan’s Parliament announced that Shavkat Mirziyoyev, the Prime Minister, would be the new acting President, prompting some rumblings of a possible power struggle. Fortunately, the political leadership vacuum seems to have been settled for now with Mirziyoyev being proclaimed as the president and successor to Karimov in elections held in December 2016.

Russian as well as local media outlets have been praising former President Islam Karimov’s achievements in the 25 years of his presidency, particularly his actions to safeguard Uzbekistan from internal tribal clashes after the breakup of the Soviet Union. Unfortunately, the effects of identity-based politics of the Soviet Union still has its negative implications on Central Asian governments’ relationships, as well as on their foreign policies towards neighboring and regional countries. It was extremely challenging for the Soviet Union to draw borderlines and impose social categorization, as they did not know how to differentiate between the various groups of people residing in those areas: whether by language, religion, or ethnicity. By requiring groups to provide ethno-geographic and historic evidence to prove the existence of their ethnic group that deserved its own republic, the Soviet Regime infused antagonistic relations and rivalry among newly formed republics and ethnic groups.

Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Central Asian countries have received minimal support from Russia and have not prospered economically. After the breakdown of the Soviet regime, the idea of establishing an exclusive bloc for Central Asian countries was explored by the regional governments as a means to preserve their sovereignty.

For many years, the Central Asian countries strived to form a Central Asian Union, but this idea never came to fruition. Today, all Central Asia countries need economic development to provide employment to the citizens and preclude labor migration to Russia, where workers are mistreated, discriminated against, and, when necessary, used as a political leverage. The Central Asian governments must work with the new president to bring the idea of a Central Asian Union to life. Central Asian countries have a lot of commonalities that can unify them and heal the wounds of history that were caused by outsiders. This union will restore confidence in the people of Central Asia and enable these countries to resolve border issues, water problems, reach reconciliation, develop industries, reinforce movement of people and goods, that will benefit all and counter domestic as well as transnational threats.

Central Asia is also experiencing issues of extremism. Russian as well as local media have been praising former President Islam Karimov’s ability to dismantle religious extremism, particularly in Ferghana Valley. This region is perceived to be a fertile breeding ground for religious extremism due to numerous socio-political as well as geographic factors. The fear of a rise in religious radicalization as well as international terrorism—given Afghanistan’s proximity to Uzbekistan—might prompt the country and other regional governments to establish even closer ties with Moscow.

Some regional experts are skeptical about any substantial changes in Uzbekistan’s domestic politics and in its affairs with neighboring countries. Nonetheless, history is full of examples where successors have chosen political directions different from their predecessors. In Turkmenistan, for example, after the death of Turkmenbashi in 2009, Gurbanbuli Berdimuhamedov, the president of Turkmenistan, introduced reforms that would be considered relatively liberal. The time is ripe for such a regional integration because 25 years of “strategic” partnerships within Russia-led regional institutions have not been effective, and the people have been waiting for too long to see socio-economic improvements in their lifetime.