Nuclear Nonproliferation at POV
March 15, 2008, at Point of View, saw the second session of a small task group set up to discuss the organizational capacity of the United States to deal with the increasing challenges in the field of nuclear nonproliferation. The spread of nuclear weapons has become an even more important issue with the increasing number of actual and potential nuclear armed states and the likely "privatisation" of nuclear capabilities in non-governmental hands.
The task group was convened by Ambassador Norman Wulf, Special Representative of the President for Nuclear Nonproliferation from 1999-2002, and Professor Barclay Ward, a long time adviser to the former Arms Control and Disarmament Agency and to the Department of State. It was hosted by ICAR's Associate Director, Dr. Kevin Avruch, and Emeritus Professor Christopher Mitchell, while students Gina Cerasani, Saira Yamin, and Aneela Shamshad acted as rapporteurs.
Much of the discussion at this and an earlier meeting held last December, focused on ideas for reconstructing the State Department's capacity for dealing in an effective and timely fashion with the growing complexities of the nuclear world in the early 21st Century. The issues and dilemmas awaiting the new U.S. Administration at the start of 2009 are not merely those that had been discussed as early as the 1960s and 1970s under the label of "the Nth country problem". Today, in addition, we must deal with violation of norms, renegade procurement networks, and "loose nukes", to name a few. Traditional tools such as the 1968 Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty remain central to this effort, but the regime is being adapted to deal with new challenges.
For President McCain or Obama, 2009 will necessitate having an administration that has the skills, the knowledge, and, above all, the organizational capacity to confront the immediate problems of Iran and North Korea, of protection against theft or diversion of nuclear materials, of strengthening export control and interdiction activities, of securing and disposing of fissile material, and of advising about "nuclear terrorism", as well as dealing with verification tasks that include monitoring compliance with existing international agreements and regimes. Each of these candidates has also supported renewed efforts toward nuclear disarmament, including further reductions in U.S. nuclear forces.
Ultimately, countries like the U.S. and Russia cannot succeed in having others give up their nuclear weapons or weapons ambitions while these two continue holding large stockpiles. Nuclear disarmament, or at least meaningful progress toward that objective, is essential to successful nonproliferation efforts. In turn, success in preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons also is essential for disarmament.
Capacities to deal effectively with all these issues have been badly eroded in recent years, a development that led to the Point of View discussions of how best to rebuild U.S. capacity to deal with this complex tangle of problems. How should the Department of State's capacities be strengthened to ensure that nuclear nonproliferation is afforded a much higher priority and status? What are the arguments for a new, separate agency along the lines of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency? How might it be possible to maintain or recruit a cohort of physical scientists, knowledgeable about nuclear technologies?
How do you ensure that information and ideas on nuclear issues reach the ear of the new President? What should be the most effective system for ensuring cooperation and policy coherence among the Departments of State, Energy, Defense, and Homeland Security?
These and many other issues were raised at the two meetings of the task group and the conveners have drafted a Report from the Point of View meetings that they hope will have an impact on the Presidential campaign, the thinking of the transitional team that becomes active after November 2008, and on policy-making after January 2009—a result which could be the first of many such to emerge from meetings and working groups at ICAR's new research, retreat, and conference center on Mason Neck.
The entire report on "Securing the Nonproliferation Capability at the Department of State" can be downloaded off the internet at http://icar.gmu.edu