Escalation and De-escalation in Asymmetric Conflict
Ph.D., 1957, Yale University
M.S., 1954, Yale University
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The life cycle of intractable conflict often involves three stages: dispirited quiescence, escalation to a state of intractability, and de-escalation accompanied by negotiation. These stages are produced by three types of perceived power distributions between the advantaged and the disadvantaged groups: highly unequal power, moderately unequal power, and equal (symmetrical) power. Once equality is reached, movement toward de-escalation and negotiation is often hesitant and gradual. It starts with signaling and/or informal communication and – if these produce optimism about reaching a mutually acceptable agreement – may move to back-channel talks. Even more optimism is required for full-scale negotiation to be entered. These theoretical points are supported by two case studies, involving conflicts in Northern Ireland and Israel/Palestine.