Why Washington is wrong to impose visa suspension on Iraqis

President Trump's executive order suspending visas and banning immigration on people from six countries including Iraq is not just unethical, it's detrimental to the national security of the United States. It will hurt the war on the ISIS and expose U.S. troops and diplomatic missions to greater risk in Iraq. Furthermore, it should be kept in mind, unlike the other five countries, Baghdad is an ally of Washington with deep political, diplomatic, economic, trade and security and defense ties that are enshrined by the Strategic Framework Agreement (SFA) signed between the two countries in 2008.

Potential Impact on the war on ISIS

The visa suspensions for Iraqis could impact the war on ISIS, which appears to be in its final stage in the city of Mosul. The news of the visa ban has already disheartened Iraqi troops fighting alongside their American counterparts. CBS News reported from Mosul that Trump’s attempt to ban Iraqis have puzzled and caused anxiety among Iraqi troops. “Why would you ban us? We are the victims. In fact, American ISIS fighters have come here,” said an Iraqi soldier at the frontline. The same message resonated with his commander who says, “it wouldn’t be right for the U.S. to ban Muslims, and would contravene America’s role as a multi-ethnic and religious country. America is country of freedom.”

Such decree will also make U.S. army personnel on the ground more vulnerable to attack and they will be exposed to maximum risk during their advising and training operations in Iraq. The suspensions of visa and the immigration ban give extremist Shia elements within the popular mobilization force and potentially within the Iraqi army to engage in acts of retaliation against U.S. troops stationed in various parts of Iraq. At the minimum it will lead to a widening distrust between the U.S. and Iraqi military in the crucial fight to degrade and defeat the Islamic State.

Kurds, the most loyal and reliable partner of the United States in the war against ISIS, are also infuriated and upset by the potential ban. Rudaw news quoting an old man in the Kurdish capital Erbil, saying, "The Peshmerga have been fighting terror and making sacrifices in this way. Is this the reward? Calling us terrorists?” Indeed, it’s very strange to hear such comments about America in Iraqi Kurdistan, where Kurds' attitude towards the United States is generally very favorable. But certainly, it does indicate how much people detest such potential action.

The ban to include Kurds will be excessively unjust not just because of the Kurdish fight against ISIS, but due to Kurdistan Regional Government's (KRG) kind treatment of U.S. citizens entering Kurdistan Region. The Kurdish government has waived visa requirement for U.S. citizens entering the Kurdish enclave for years. This policy has helped American businessmen, investors, researchers, NGOs and other humanitarian organizations to gain access to the Kurdish region easily without countering any problems.

Potential Impact on Iraqi politics

The political cost of such action could be very high for the Trump administration because such measure, in the middle of war against ISIS and the upcoming Iraqi parliamentary election only three months away, could change the political landscape of Iraq and bring back former Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to power.

Realizing such danger and to rescue his political future, Prime Minister al-Abadi may not have any option, but to retaliate by suspending visa issuance for American citizens. Such a reciprocal measure in the world of diplomacy, of course, is not a surprise, but it could exacerbate U.S.-Iraqi tensions and further push Baghdad towards Tehran.

Unlike his predecessor, since 2014 al-Abadi has established very good working relations with the U.S., and kept balanced relations with Sunnis, Kurds as well as Iranians. However, his bid for reelection could be jeopardized in such critical time. His main rival, former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, widely believed to be responsible for fall of Mosul, the worsening security situation in Iraq and the marginalization of Sunnis and Kurds, is attempting a comeback to power in April. He visited Iran and sought their blessing to return to power. While it's not clear if Tehran has given the green-light to al-Maliki, but if al-Abadi remains silent in the face of the U.S. ban on Iraqis, al-Maliki can run a populist campaign to help him win the election. If the mentioned scenario happens, then the Trump administration should work with a man responsible for reversing America’s gain in Iraq after the U.S. troops withdrew in 2011.

Potential impact on US diplomatic Mission

Finally, Washington should not underestimate a populist politician and cleric like Muqtada al Sadr whose call can bring millions onto the streets of Baghdad. Sadr has shown his ability in mobilizing hundreds of thousands of people in Baghdad. In May 2016 Sadr supporters stormed the Iraqi parliament in the fortified Green Zone, where the American embassy is located. A similar event targeting the U.S. embassy, which is the largest in the world, is a likely scenario as retaliation to visa ban. Iraqi troops guarding the Green Zone could not stop Sadr supporters during their rampage on the Green Zone. Thus, the security and safety of the U.S. diplomats could be at a higher risk.

In summary, the cost of the visa suspension and the immigration ban on Iraqis could be very high politically, diplomatically and security wise against the low likelihood of acts of terrorism perpetrated by Iraqis in the United States. As of 2013, 84,902 Iraqi refugees have been resettled in the United States. Only two have been convicted with terrorism charges. Not to mention thousands of others that have entered the country on student, business and tourist visas without posing a threat to this country. For the above reason, including Iraq in the ban could backfire.

Yerevan Saeed is originally from Iraqi Kurdistan. He is a PhD student at the School of Conflict Analysis and Resolution- George Mason University and a former White House correspondent for Kurdish TV.