The Islamic State: An Experiment in Self-Fulfilling Dynamics

In 1928, the American sociologist W.I. Thomas uttered the words, “If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences.” This gave rise to the Thomas Theorem and, through the reframing of sociologist Robert K. Merton (1948), the “self-fulfilling prophecy” (SFP):

The self-fulfilling prophecy is, in the beginning, a false definition of the situation evoking a new behavior which makes the original false conception come true. This specious validity of the self-fulfilling prophecy perpetuates a reign of error. For the prophet will cite the actual course of events as proof that he was right from the very beginning (ibid.).

Philosopher Sir Karl Popper (1976) converged on the same ontological territory covered by the SFP with his concept of the Oedipus effect (OE):

One of the ideas I had discussed in The Poverty of Historicism was the influence of a prediction upon the event predicted. I had called this the "Oedipus effect", because the oracle played a most important role in the sequence of events which led to the fulfilment of its prophecy. … For a time I thought that the existence of the Oedipus effect distinguished the social from the natural sciences. But in biology, too — even in molecular biology — expectations often play a role in bringing about what has been expected (ibid.).

Whether we prefer “self-fulfilling prophecy” or “Oedipus effect,” the emergence of the brutal and barbaric system known as the Islamic State is — more and more – the result of such nuanced dynamics. For instance, one of the reasons used by American neoconservatives to justify the invasion of Iraq on March 20, 2003, was that the terrorist group al Qaeda — architect of the 911 attacks — was collaborating operationally with Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and, indeed, was physically present in Iraq.

When Provisional Coalition Authority leader, J. Paul Bremer eliminated the Iraqi Army and Ba’ath Party, disenfranchising thousands of Sunni Muslims in the process, he incentivized the formerly empowered Sunnis to fight back any way they could. One way was to establish al Qaeda in Mesopotamia with Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi in charge. Once the American and other Coalition Authority forces withdrew from Iraq, al Qaeda in Mesopotamia morphed into the Islamic State for Iraq and Syria (ISIS) or, simply, the Islamic State.

The insidious operation of the self-fulfilling prophecy or Oedipus effect is clear in the case of the Iraq invasion and occupation: American, British and other political leaders entertained the originally false assumption that Islamic extremists – i.e., al Qaeda – were in Iraq. Their subsequent behavior, based on that false assumption, brought about the reality of that definition of the situation.
With the murderous attacks in Paris on “Friday the 13th,” 2015, the SFP/OE is destined for greater ontological alchemy: The discovery that at least one of the attackers may have entered Europe through Greece and then into France, disguised as a refugee, has given rise to the narrative that ISIS, al Qaeda, and/or other extremists are among the tens of thousands of Syrian refugees entering Europe, with some eventually destined for the United States. The assumption now being entertained by many is that these “faux” refugees will become part of sleeper cells, poised to commit acts of terrorism in the host countries that have given them sanctuary.

Not surprisingly, some European and American political leaders, sensing an opportunity to exploit the Syrian refugee crisis for personal gain, have advanced the argument that acceptance of Syrian refugees incurs the risk that terrorist Trojan horses will enter their communities, integrate themselves within their host countries as ticking time bombs, and then wait to be detonated by command of ISIS Central. This is precisely how some populist politicians have framed the ISIS-inspired San Bernardino attacks which occurred roughly two weeks after the Paris assault.

Tens of thousands of Muslim refugees are now being dehumanized, demonized, and delegitimized simply because they are Muslim. By being excluded from social, political, economic, and other institutions – exclusion being a primary cause of violent conflict (Philips, 2014) – these desperate souls will be pushed into a frustration-aggression/violent conflict mode. As if to ensure such an outcome, David Bowers, the mayor of Roanoke, Virginia – a Democrat – has even invoked the internment of Japanese-Americans during World War 2 as one model of a possible response to this combustible enemy-image narrative (Weiner, 2015). In addition, at least 30 Republican governors have refused to accept any Muslim refugees for re-settlement in their states (BBC, 2015). And then there is Republican frontrunner Donald Trump’s  populist call “for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country’s representatives can figure out what the hell is going on” (CNN, 2015).

Edward  Luce of the Financial Times is justifiably concerned that either Donald Trump or his ideological equivalent, Ted Cruz, will emerge as the Republican nominee to go up against Hillary Clinton in the race for the U.S. Presidency: “Then,” against that background, “the election is upended by a Paris-style terror attack – that dreaded ‘October surprise’” (Luce, 2016). In the meantime, the self-fulfilling dynamic is in full play, ensuring that a catastrophic overreaction will occur:

The right worries that US Muslims are a fifth column. By goading such fears they make law-abiding citizens feel unwelcome and fuel the alienation that breeds terrorists. This is what ISIS wants (ibid.).

What did Pogo say all those years ago? “We have met the enemy and he is us!” 
 

References

BBC (2015). “Roanoke Mayor Uses Internment Camps to Justify Refugee Policy.” BBC News, 19 November. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-34864814

CNN (2015). “{Donald Trump: Ban All Muslim Travel to .U.S.” CNN News, 8 December http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/07/politics/donald-trump-muslim-ban-immigrati...

Luce, Edward (2016). “America’s Election Year Terror Risk.” Financial Times, 11 January, p. 9. Merton, Robert K. (1948), "The Self Fulfilling Prophecy", Antioch Review 8 (2 (Summer)): 195.

Phillips, Tim (2014). “The Neuroscience and Social Conflict.” TEDx Talk, Boston, 5 November https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfljJGTVcKE Popper, Karl (1976). Unended Quest: An Intellectual Autobiography. LaSalle, Illinois: Open Court.

Weiner, Rachel (2015). “Roanoke Mayor David Bowers: Reject Refugees Like U.S. Interned Japanese.” The Washington Post, 18 November. https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/roanoke-mayor-dav...

### Photo: Flickr user Jagz Mario.